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The long shadow war between Israel and Iran has burst into the open in recent days, with Israel allegedly striking Iran-linked targets as far away as Iraq and crash-landing two drones in Hezbollah-dominated southern Beirut. Israel’s Prime Minister Ben…
August 27, 2019Read More
The moves come as Trump has sought Putin’s inclusion into the G-7.
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U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the power sector, and broader economy have declined 61 percent between 2006–2014; mainly from “switching from coal-to-gas-powered generation,” according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Second Installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review, January 2017. These environmentally sound numbers from higher use of natural gas can also be translated globally to help with pollution in countries such as China, India, and across the continent of Africa.The United States now uses natural gas converted to liquid natural gas (LNG) from shale deposits in states such as Texas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania to transform geopolitics. Lower LNG prices stymie terrorist-financing budgets in Tehran and lower the ability for Vladimir Putin’s Russia to weaponize their energy assets for geopolitical adventures in Ukraine, Crimea, Syria, Central Asian and the Middle East.How this new soft power of energy transforms the world economically, geopolitically, and positively towards western-aligned institutions is through increasing LNG exports, which “hit a new record high at 4.7 billion cubic feet per day in May 2019.” The United States is approximately the world’s third largest LNG exporter. Illustrating this power has seen the United States add four new LNG trains “with a combined capacity of 2.4Bcf/d come online since November 2018.” Countries with heavy LNG deposits can transform their national fate and redirect their foreign-policy and national-security initiatives without deploying their militaries. Energy economics overtakes military significance, because everyone needs the power generation and electricity that clean burning, LNG exports provide.Positively, it means the United States no longer has to rely on Middle Eastern authoritarians to power its economy, and the world order that has depended on the United States for global security since the end of World War II. Negatively, since the United States no longer needs Saudi oil or Qatari LNG then the debate over protecting the Strait of Hormuz, where “90 percent of oil exported from the Gulf, (and) about 20 percent of the world’s supply passed through,” would be a nonstarter.Europe, led by Germany, is where the LNG’s soft power persuasiveness is changing continent-wide dynamics. In the first half of 2019 according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): “Roughly 40 percent of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe, and in January, Europe surpassed Asia as a buyer of U.S. LNG for the first time.” This is a direct, soft power approach to countering Germany moving forward with the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline that the United States and other European countries have deeply opposed.Additionally, this newfound purchasing of U.S. LNG in Europe is another poker chip that can be used against Turkey leaning away from NATO over the purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system. It can also be used as a deterrent against the Turkish vessels that are continuously encroaching on Cyprus’ coast as they seek to illegally drill for oil and natural gas. Thus, this puts the entire Mediterranean security profile at risk, says, “Athens’ newly elected government.”But coercion, and diplomatic solutions, without shots being fired, or crippling sanctions, are the opportunities the soft power of LNG provide large and small nation-states. With the United States since 2017 being the world’s top producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons this offers opportunities never dreamed of during the Cold War when it was the United States and the west versus Russia for global supremacy.Beating Russia at weaponization of oil and natural gas can be traced to 2009 when “U.S. natural gas production surpassed that of Russia.” Russian firms heavily influenced or owned by the Kremlin—Rosneft and Gazprom—took a serious blow, which meant they no longer had free reign to manipulate prices in Central Asia, Eastern and Western Europe whenever it suited Moscow’s needs.As an example, the first cargo delivery of LNG arrived in Poland earlier this summer from PGNiG (a Polish firm), and U.S. LNG provider Cheniere Energy at President Lech Kaczyński LNG Terminal in Świnoujście. The long-term contract, which was signed in November of 2018, will total approximately thirty-nine billion cubic metre of natural gas over the twenty-four year period of the agreement.Piotr Woźniak, President of PGNiG Management Board said:“Our portfolio of contracts with U.S. suppliers covers over 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas after regasification annually – that is more than we import from Russia. Such a volume strengthens Poland’s energy security, but also gives us the opportunity to actively participate in LNG trading on the global market.” This bolsters “energy relations” between Poland and the United States without involving military friction that normally precipitates NATO movements against Russia. Instead, U.S. LNG blocks Russian energy from interfering in Polish internal affairs or economic development.Global security and European Union foreign policy against Russian LNG will also speed ahead in the coming years and decades ahead. New oil and natural gas project spending is expected to jump five-fold in 2019, according to Wood Mackenzie. Even smaller, geopolitical players like Mexico are seeking ways to boost their natural gas production 50 percent through government-owned, oil firm, Petroleo Mexicanos (PEMEX).Fossil fuel—particularly, natural gas and/or LNG—will be at the forefront when it relates to soft power, national security, and robust economic growth for mature and emerging markets. Natural gas markets are dominated by U.S. energy decisions translated into policy more than ever before, “as Washington prosecutes a trade war with China and takes a hard line on Iran.”The dominance takes place, because U.S. gross imports of crude and natural gas have steadied or declined whereas “rising LNG exports provide another point of US entry into world energy markets.” This balances world LNG markets, provides stability, and moves international energy trade forward in a soft power direction and platform over the weaponization of energy assets seen from Russia, China and Iran.There is an LNG, soft power drama playing out on the world stage to engage international relations. LNG keeps major wars from erupting, and that is a positive economic and human longevity aspect of energy that few people, companies and governments seem to understand these days.Todd Royal is an author and consultant specializing in global threat assessment, energy development and policy for oil, gas and renewables based in Los Angeles, California.Image: Reuters
August 27, 2019Read More
Last month, there was a peculiar event occurring in the skies over the Sea of Japan. Military aircraft from Russia and China were conducting a joint air patrol and entered the respective Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ) of Japan and South Korea….
August 27, 2019Read More
French president Emmanuel Macron, only two years into office, has already enjoyed at least four different phases in his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. First, there was Macron the establishmentarian’s reaction to Trump’s ascension. In 20…
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It was second time lucky on Tuesday as an unmanned spacecraft carrying Russia’s first humanoid robot docked at the International Space Station following a failed attempt over the weekend. Copying human movements and designed to help with high-risk tas…
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For some, the mere fact that Donald Trump stuck around marked out this week’s G7 summit in Biarritz as a resounding success for his French host Emmanuel Macron. “These days, that Donald Trump has not walked out constitutes a triumph,” Britain’s Econom…
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Iran on Tuesday convicted another British-Iranian on espionage charges, prompting the husband of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to accuse the UK government of shirking its responsibility towards detained dual nationals. Iran’s judiciary said it had sentenced Anousheh Ashouri to 12 years for allegedly passing information to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, which the Telegraph understands brings to seven the number held by Tehran with links to Britain. They include Ms Ashouri, charity worker Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, British Council worker Aras Amiri, whose 10 year sentence for spying was upheld today, academic Kameel Ahmady, and three others who have not made their cases public. Ms Ashouri has been detained since August 2017 but was sentenced this week by a court in Tehran, which accused her of “being connected to Mossad and receiving money from them as an informer.” The judiciary did not make public the evidence against her. Academic Kameel Ahmady was arrested in Tehran earlier this month Credit: Family handout Speaking to the Telegraph, Richard Ratcliffe questioned whether the UK had “any idea” how to respond to an increasingly belligerent Iran, which has demonstrated its willingness to use dual nationals as pawns in its standoff with the West. “It is really not clear if the UK has any idea how to respond to this,” he said. “A responsible government does not leave ordinary people to fend for themselves in cases of state hostage-taking. How much worse does it need to get? “The Iranians are signalling an increasing hostility these days – from the renewed abuse of Nazanin, with last month’s transfer to a mental hospital in chains and now banning child visits, to the new trumped-up sentences for Aras, the arrest of Kameel and now Anousheh.” Mr Ratcliffe believes the Islamic republic is using them as diplomatic leverage as tensions with the UK escalate. Richard Ratcliffe, the husband of imprisoned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, protesting outside the Iranian Embassy in London Credit: REX He said he would be meeting Dominic Raab, Foreign Secretary, for the first time on Monday to discuss his wife’s case and the others. James Tyson, Miss Amiri’s fiance, levelled similar accusations against British officials for “offering platitudes while remaining utterly blind to their own responsibility”. Miss Amiri, 33, a UK resident of 10 years who was arrested last year while visiting her ailing grandmother in Iran, worked for the British Council, which is partly funded by the government, on arts projects. Mr Tyson, who also works for the British Council, said officials initially refused to meet to discuss the case and claimed they could not help Miss Amiri because she was an Iranian citizen. He blamed both the Iranian and UK governments for failing to enter into dialogue. Writing in the Guardian over the weekend, he said: “She’s caught in the middle of two global powers who refuse, or don’t know how to talk to each other.” Sir Alan Duncan, a former foreign minister, in his July resignation letter cited the British government’s failure to negotiate a release for Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who is eligible for parole after serving half of her five-year-sentence. Coast Guardsmen with Maritime Security Response Team East during a training exercise in the Persian Gulf Credit: Reuters Sir Alan criticised Boris Johnson’s handling of the case when he was foreign secretary: “I remain deeply upset that some fruitful discussions I had initiated about the possible release of Nazanin Ratcliffe were brought to such an abrupt halt,” he wrote. The case involving Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s has been widely cited as one of Mr Johnson’s most damaging episodes at the Foreign Office, after he erroneously told a Commons committee she was involved in training journalists. An FCO spokesperson said last night: “We have been supporting the family of a British-Iranian dual national since his detention and our embassy in Tehran continues to request consular access, The treatment of all dual nationals detained in Iran is a priority and we raise their cases at the most senior levels. “We urge Iran to let them be reunited with their families.”
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New British finance minister Sajid Javid said he will announce higher public spending on health, education and the police next week in order to “clear the decks for Brexit,” a move seen by many as preparation for an early election. Javid said he would…
August 27, 2019Read More
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, has told Hizbollah’s leader to “calm down” after he said his movement was preparing a response within days to Israeli strikes. Mr Netanyahu warned Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of the Lebanese Shia group, to “be careful” with their words and actions. “I want to say to him and the Lebanese state, which is hosting this organisation that aims to destroy us, (…) Be careful about your words, and even more cautious about your actions,” he said on Tuesday. “He knows very well that the state of Israel knows how to defend itself well, and to repay its enemies.” Tensions between the two sides are more fraught than usual after Israel was accused of carrying out a drone attack on a Hizbollah facility in Beirut on Sunday and of striking an armed Palestinian faction in eastern Lebanon – its first such hostile action since the 2006 war. Investigators of Lebanon’s military intelligence inspect the site after an alleged attack carried by two Israeli drones, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon Credit: Rex The Israeli military has been regularly flying drones over neighbouring Lebanon since the month-long Summer War of 2006, but had limited its activity to reconnaissance. In a speech made on Sunday, Nasrallah, whose group receives funding and support from Tehran, issued Israel with a threat: “I say to the Israeli army on the border from tonight, stand guard (on high alert). Wait for us one, two, three, four days.” Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun, meanwhile, called Israel’s actions a “declaration of war”. The attacks on Lebanon came days after a Israeli strike on Hizbollah units in Syria which left two members dead and on Iran-allied militia groups in Iraq – an unprecedented flurry of activity that raises fears of a wider conflict. Mr Netanyahu has pledged to stop Israel’s arch-enemy Iran from entrenching itself militarily in Syria. He has also warned of Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to the media at the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem Credit: Reuters Israel, which has hit targets in Syria hundreds of times but rarely claims responsibility, immediately claimed the strike near Damascus on Sunday, saying it was to thwart an imminent drone strike against Israel. Any new conflict between Israel and Hizbollah would be much more costly for both sides than the 2006 war. The militia has grown considerably in strength in the last 15 years – thanks to Iranian arms shipments – and is now represented in Lebanese parliament. Israel has said that it would now see the whole of Lebanon as fair game in any future war.
August 27, 2019Read More
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on Tuesday urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to lead Britain out of the EU without a divorce deal, threatening to fight his party “in every seat” otherwise. “Given where we are, no deal is the best deal,” Farage told …
August 27, 2019Read More
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