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A 16-year-old Swedish activist has sailed the Atlantic to attend a U.N. climate summit. She’s become a high-profile presence in climate diplomacy, and inspired teens to push for action.
August 27, 2019Read More
The proposed accord is aimed at ending nearly 18 years of war in Afghanistan. The exit deal distinctly echoes another that turned out badly: Vietnam.
August 27, 2019Read More
The Iranian president’s remarks on Tuesday were in contrast to an initially favorable reception to the idea of a face-to-face meeting with President Trump.
August 27, 2019Read More
Ludovic Marin/AFP/GettyPresident Donald Trump hasn’t exactly gone after China’s chiefs for cracking down on protesters in Hong Kong. Trump said earlier this month that he wanted to see the situation “worked out in a very humanitarian fashion.” And over…
August 27, 2019Read More
President Hassan Rouhani Tuesday told the United States to “take the first step” by lifting all sanctions against Iran, dampening down the likelihood of meeting US counterpart Donald Trump. Trump had said on Monday he was ready to meet with the Irania…
August 27, 2019Read More
With the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty now officially dead, the fate of the New START treaty–and with it, much of the world’s remaining nuclear arms control architecture–continues to hang in the balance. Earlier this week, the Pentagon revealed what it would take to save New START– and the Kremlin isn’t going to like it.In a recent interview given to Fox News, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper conditioned the potential extension of New START, set to expire in February 2021, on the inclusion of Russia’s latest nuclear-capable weapons and hypersonic delivery systems: “If there is going to be an extension of the New START, then we need to make sure that we include all these new weapons that Russia is pursuing… “Right now, Russia has possibly nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, INF-range (range stipulated by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Weapons Treaty) cruise missiles facing toward Europe.”But what exactly are these “new weapons,” and do they fall under New START’s jurisdiction? With Russia’s Poseidon Thermonuclear drones still in testing and reportedly up to eight years away from entering service, the arms control discussion is currently centered around two of the weapons unveiled at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2018 annual annual state-of-the-nation address: the avangard hypersonic boost-glide missile system, and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal nuclear-capable, long-range air-to-surface ballistic missile.Avangard’s treaty classification is all but an open-and-shut case. Not only is it designed to carry missiles already regulated by New START, but avangard itself falls under New START’s definition of a re-entry vehicle– that is, an object “that can survive reentry through the dense layers of the Earth’s atmosphere and that is designed for delivering a weapon to a target or for testing such a delivery.”Meanwhile, the Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile is more of a grey area. In of itself, it likely falls outside of New START’s jurisprudence– the same, however, cannot be said of its long-range carrier. Experts argue that there is a strong basis for classifying the upcoming, kinzhal-compatible Tu-22M3M as an “undeclared heavy bomber” under the treaty’s classification system, especially if it can achieve the treaty-specified range of over 8,000 kilometers with aerial refueling. Russian officials and defense commentators have gone out of their way to deny that any of the above weapons fall under New START’s limitation guidelines. Despite barely making a dent in the total allowed limit of 800 deployed or non deployed strategic delivery vehicles, Russia’s latest weapons have become a major point of contention in the ongoing debate over New START’s extension because of the treaty’s enforcement implications; namely, the treaty requires Moscow to notify Washington whenever it deploys or tests Avangard. Moreover, the treaty’s sanctioned satellite tracking and yearly onsite inspections would allow the US to continuously monitor the production, location, and activity of every avangard unit.Prominent Russian defense commentators believe that this level of forced transparency would hamper the efficacy of Russia’s nuclear deterrent and undermine future Russian weapon research and defense efforts.The Kremlin, for its part, sees Esper’s proposal as a nonstarter. Russia’s ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov has stated in no uncertain terms that Russia not only denies the applicability of New START to any of the weapons unveiled at Putin’s 2018 address, but rejects all plans to broaden the scope of New START to cover any new weapons whatsoever: “we have to stick with the provisions of the Treaty,” Antonov said at the Carnegie Endowment’s nuclear policy conference in March of 2019.Mark Episkopos is a frequent contributor to The National Interest and serves as research assistant at the Center for the National Interest. Mark is also a PhD student in History at American University.
August 27, 2019Read More
It appears the Russian warplane-make Sukhoi has a plan to fix the most obvious flaw in the design of its new Hunter drone.Photos from The War Zone editor Tylor Rogoway obtained from the Sukhoi pavilion at Russia’s MAKS air show in Moscow oblast reveal what is apparently the ultimate version of the fighter-style Hunter.This version features an engine exhaust that is flush with the airframe. The current, prototype version of the Hunter, which first appeared in January 2019, features an AL-31 engine that protrudes from the fuselage.Such an engine arrangement represents a major source of radar signature and could ruin the drone’s stealthiness from the side and rear aspects.“So, at the moment, Russia’s Hunter design is far from realizing the low-observability it seems to aspire towards, but now we know that Sukhoi is not only aware of this, the company hopes to fix it as the aircraft moves forward in development,” Rogoway wrote.The new exhaust layout “is most reminiscent of the one found on the X-45A demonstrators that largely paved the way for American [unmanned combat air vehicle] development,” Rogoway pointed out.It’s unclear whether the new exhaust also will require Sukhoi to install a new engine on the Hunter. A change of powerplant could complicate Russia’s efforts to speed Hunter into front-line service.But the extra work likely is worth it. A flying wing similar in shape to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 stealth bomber, Hunter, in theory, could penetrate enemy defenses to deliver ordnance. The design greatly would benefit from all-aspect stealth.In size and shape,Hunter is in the same class as China’s Tian Ying drone, the U.S. Air Force’s RQ-170 surveillance unmanned aerial vehicle, the U.S. Navy’s experimental X-47B UAV and Boeing’s X-45C drone demonstrator.The Chinese drone and the X-47 and X-45 are just demonstrators or prototypes. By contrast, the likelihood of Hunter-B eventually entering squadron service with the Russian air force is “big,” Tom Cooper, an independent expert on Russian military aviation, told The National Interest.”The Russian military is running multiple UAV-related projects,” Cooper said. “Thus the emergence of this project is perfectly normal.”On Aug. 3, 2019, a Hunter prototype took off from a military test site for its first-ever test flight. The flying-wing-shape drone flew for more than 20 minutes at a maximum altitude or around 2,000 feet, reported TASS, a state news organization.The prototype drone also was on the flight line when Russian president Vladimir Putin on May 14, 2019 inspected the country’s latest warplanes at the 929th Chkalov State Flight-Test Center in Russia’s Astrakhan region.“In addition to the modern and advanced military aircraft and helicopters that were shown to us, unmanned aerial vehicles were presented,” Putin said. “I emphasize that all the activities in preparation for the serial production of this technology were performed on time.”“Let’s get to work,” Putin said.”At this point, it is going to be heaviest and fastest UAV [in Russian service] if and when fielded, but additional testing and evaluation will have to take place in order for this unmanned system to be fully functional,” said Samuel Bendett, an independent expert on the Russian military. “Its speed [up to 620 miles per hour] and weight — up to 20 tons — means that a host of aerodynamic, electronic and high-tech issues need to be worked out.”To be effective in service, Hunter also will need small precision-guided munitions, Cooper pointed out. The Kremlin long has lagged behind the rest of the word in PGM development.All the above means that Hunter might need several more years of development before it’s ready for squadron service.But Russian crews are already getting ready, Cooper said. “The first generation of pilots and ground crews for UAVs just completed their four-years-long training, and they meanwhile have plenty of experience in operating smaller UAVs in Syria.”
August 27, 2019Read More
(Bloomberg) — Top Iranian officials all but ruled out talks with the U.S. a day after President Donald Trump extended his most expansive offer yet to the Islamic Republic.The U.S. must lift sanctions on Iran if it wants to negotiate, President Hassan …
August 27, 2019Read More
Iran’s president back-pedaled Tuesday on possible talks with Donald Trump, saying the U.S. president must first lift sanctions imposed on Tehran, otherwise a meeting between the two would be a mere photo op. Hassan Rouhani’s change of heart came a day…
August 27, 2019Read More
President Hassan Rouhani Tuesday told the United States to “take the first step” by lifting all sanctions against Iran, a day after US President Donald Trump said he was open to meeting. You must retreat from all illegal, unjust and wrong sanctions ag…
August 27, 2019Read More
Brexit is 65 days away.(Bloomberg) — Today in Brexit: Boris Johnson returns from his debut on the world stage buoyant — but with problems mounting.What’s Happening? Boris Johnson turned on the charm at the G-7, barely putting a foot wrong on his inte…
August 27, 2019Read More
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